Chronicle of a Crisis Foretold

A guest post by Paola Raffaelli, who is an expert in the Argentinian social economy and is studying for a PhD at Roehampton University

The crisis that occurred last week in Argentina is the unleashing of a cycle that began 40 years ago with the onset of neoliberal policies. This was exacerbated by a complex domestic and international situation. These factors that converged this time will be analysed, not losing sight of the structural perspective.

This most recent crisis in Argentina is part of an economic cycle that has recurred frequently during the last 40 years: cycles of currency appreciation, currency flight, devaluation and financial strangulation. The reason lies in the national productive structure of the country: the agricultural sector dominates Argentina's exports but only provides a low level of employment whereas the industrial sector requires imports and but generates high levels of employment. Therefore, from the early 20th century onwards, productive (and Peronist) national models faced recurring crises caused by the limitation on obtaining the necessary dollars for the industrial sector to continue producing. The agricultural sector, that was advantaged by the 2002 devaluation but lost in economic terms during the last five years, has been pushing for a currency devaluation since 2008.

The relationship with the dollar also has a social component. During these 40 years, Argentina’s economy has depended on the dollar, including the 10 years in which it was de facto dollarised as a result of the convertibility Law. Major purchases such as property are always made in dollars which helps to explain why Argentina is the country with the most dollars per capita after the US (around U$S1600 per person).

Economic growth during the 10 years after the 2001 crisis averaged around 7% per year. But growth in a country that does not have its own energy resources (hence the motivatation for the the renationalization of YPF oil company) and with an outdated productive infrastructure is severely constrained. In turn, the lack of control over inflation, which was around 40% in 2013, and lack of trust in the government led to a currency flight of 20 billion pesos during the last 3 years.

In order to wriggle out of a crisis that appeared inevitable, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s government has, since April 2012, implemented restrictive measures to prevent currency flight. These began with the inability of withdraw cash outside the country and deepened to reach a 35% tax on purchases made abroad. Such measures are as impossible to understand for someone who is not Argentine as the despair we have about saving in dollars. These restrictions created a black market for dollars, called the 'blue dollar'. The escalation in the price of ‘blue dollar’ and the inflation increase in recent months could only lead to one outcome. Even if the government had tried to hold the price of the dollar in the last week there was a devaluation of nearly 20%, which adds up to 50% in the last six months (32% of devaluation and 15% increase in the purchase tax).

What is driving the speculation is expectations. Speculation in the agricultural sector, where farmers hoarded their crops in expectation of the dollar increase (it is estimated there are crops stockpiled in silos worth about US$4bn). Speculation among importers, who due to an increase in the dollar, accelerated their purchases in order to reduce costs. Speculation of international companies waiting for a devaluation that would allow them reduce labour costs. From the most important communication media, government opponent since 2008, propaganda emerged during these five years in favour of devaluation and increased inflation. Thus, society as a whole acts according to a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In turn, these crises that are brewing gradually take place within a conducive international framework. In recent times, the fall in commodity prices affected the inflow of dollars to Argentina, and the increase in energy imports to supply production further damaged the national current account. The crisis also occurred at the time when the US was withdrawing stimulus dollars for emerging economies such as India, Turkey and Brazil, Argentina's main trading partner. Finally, the Minister of Finance himself linked the outbreak of the crisis with international pressure, denouncing Shell for having withdrawn capital last week and trying to increase the dollar price.

This crisis is the result of a distributive struggle among different actors, both internal and external, which play a role in Argentina's economy. And government by 'market pressure', which we can equate with the agricultural sector, international companies, domestic inflation and social pressure of banning the purchase of dollars within a more difficult international context than in previous months the months before, finally led to the devaluation.

Argentina has a difficult scenario for 2014 with union claims of around 30%, 40% inflation and national currency reserves of less than US$30bn. Undoubtedly, Cristina Kirchner’s government faces its most difficult year and will have to find answers within heterodox economics if they do not want to betray their principles.
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Sisterhood is Powerful

The most successful challenge to the global domination of neoliberalism has been slowly maturing in Latin America. The latest development is an interesting coalition between two women in powerful positions where you might least expect. In Argentina, where stereotypes suggest the men rides horses and the women are pushed around the dance-floor like shopping trollies, the female President and female head of the Central Bank are cooking up a distinctly different monetary policy.

The banker, Mercedes Marco del Pont, has recently achieved the rare accolade of being voted 'worst central banker in the world' by the lackeys of the financiers. Her sin appears to be balancing the needs of the Argentinian people with those of the finance sector. She is refusing to have the sole focus on inflation that the IMF demands and has annouced that financial stability, employment creation and economic development with social equity will also be objectives of monetary policy.

Somewhat predictably Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF threatened Argentina with a 'red card', to which President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner responded 'My country is not a soccer team. It is a sovereign country and, as such, is not going to accept a threat.' Last time we caught up with Argentina on this blog, they were celebrating their liberation from debt-based financing, and  reclaiming their right to the value of the country's resources. Wray updates us: the recent poor weather has threatened both of Argentina's main exports: soya and beef. This helps to explain the inflation problem that the central bank is facing, but so far the political and monetary sisterhood in Argentina is holding firm.

This story is based on the account of Modern Monetary Theorist Randall Wray; he tells the story in greater detail on his Economonitor blog.
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Sources of Critique and Hope

My friend and colleague Barbara Panvel has been doing an excellent job, sharing information about government corruption, the recent action by farmers defending their livelihoods, and the need for shared ownership. She also co-ordinates a group of like-minded researchers in the New Era Network, of which I am a part. Today she announces the award of the Goi Peace Award to Network member Helena Norberg-Hodge.

A couple of recent highlights from blogs you might like to follow:

On her 'political clean-up' blog on 15th July Barbara asked why the media story about the award of £10m. to the John Innes Centre to develop GM maize failed to mention the £45m. of public money that is being invested in the same project.  The Centre receives more than half its financing from the public purse, and yet private-sector interests are now determining the focus of its activities.

Way back in 2007, Barbara, a keen reader of the Farmers' Weekly, was already reporting on the devastating effect the supermarkets were having on farmers' livelihoods, an issue that is finally reaching public attention.

On her 'antidote' site she reports on the Bauen Hotel in Buenos Aires, recuperated by its employees in 2003 and still going strong:

'The hotel (video link) now has 150 workers, a street-side cafe selling many products produced by other worker-owned shops, and over 200 renovated hotel rooms. The co-operative makes its decisions collectively at assemblies of its 142 staff, pays all workers the same basic $800 (£540, €650) a month (with just a few incentives, of less than $100, for length of service, timeliness and for staff handling cash, for example) and prides itself on its alternative management philosophy.'
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Argentina Claims Resource Sovereignty

The business world is reacting with horror to news that Argentinian President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has made a decision to take control of her nation's oil resources, by taking a 51% controlling stake in the country's largest oil company YPF. As she reasonably argues, these resources belong to the people of Argentina, and she defies the right of Spanish oil corporation Repsol to profit from the patrimony of her country.

This is another positive challenge to the neoliberal world order which we too often take for granted. YPF was a state-controlled company for 70 years, before Argentina was forced to sell it in the 1990s in order to pay off its foreign debts. Reclaiming it seems a natural part of the progression of the Latin American countries towards a new economic model that is neither capitalism nor communism but something new. While the new model will accept markets operating for the social benefit, it claims the need to exercise political control over key sectors, of which energy is surely the most significant.

From the perpsective of a bioregional economy, the desire that resources should belong to land, and that the people who live in that land should claim ownership of them seems natural. How else can people act in a responsible way towards their local environment? How else can we have a sense of economic, social and political justice?

The Argentinian move comes on the same day that, in Britain, a report has been published that paves the way for a decision to allow private companies to create environmental mayhem by extracting shale gas in the process known as fracking. According to a colleague of mine who is involved in opposing the fracking operations in South Wales, the concession to exploit these resources in the whole South Wales area was sold for a mere £1m. by the central government.

While we should, of course, fight fracking because of its risk to public health, its ability to destabilise underground rock systems, the distraction from the need for rapid energy reductions, and the likelihood that the chemicals used in the high-pressure extraction process will contaminate ground-water supplies, we should also challenge the right of our government to sell the resources of our country to a private company which faces no public accountability. In a bioregional economy, we could expect to profit from the resources we own, but we would also have an incentive to act responsibly, since the consequences of the extraction would be felt by those who benefited from them. In the global economy, by contrast, local people pay the price whether in Latin America or South Wales, while the global elite reap the rewards.
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Greek Chorus

I've thought about calling this blog 'thinking the unthinkable' but I decided to use such a cliched strapline was probably itself unthinkable. Perhaps 'explaining the inexplicable' would be more appropriate. But what I am not prepared to do is repeating the unrepeatable and so, in response to a request from a friend and colleague for some guidance on the Greek situation, I am offering a tidying up and pulling together of various previous posts.

We need to begin with an understanding of the misguided euro project, which was driven by corporate interests and political ambitions and was unpopular with economists from the start. The sort of strait-jacket it imposed on countries' interest rates assumed a uniformity of economic development and social values that simply did not exist. The strictures that were entered into and are now being enforced are similar to those imposed by the gold standard in the 1930s, and so brilliantly explained by Karl Polanyi in his Great Transformation. For a more radical view of the purpose of the Euro project you might enjoy a paper by Ramón Fernández Durán called 'Mars Vs Venus, or Dollar vs Euro?'

This helps us to answer the question of whose fault it is - the financiers and corporate power-brokers who sought to increase their power and ease their extraction of surplus value. It was the poor design and inadequate debate that resulted in the tragedies now playing themselves out in Greece, for which the Greek people cannot be held accountable and should not be made to suffer. Similar arguments were made by Mary Mellor, and were posted to the blog in May 2010.

This brings us to what is to be done. Here I point to the lessons from Argentina, where a country's leaders refused to see their society destroyed and forced their creditors to the negotiating table. Politically this is the only acceptable option: a democratic decision about who gains and who loses value. In the free-for-all that is now threatened in Greece the financiers will flex their muscle while pensioners and the soon-to-be unemployed will be the losers. The tragedy not just for Greece but for the world is that similar negotiations at the global level have not been taking place and are desperately overdue if we are to preserve our democratic right to decide how our economies function.
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Argentina Learns not to Pampa Financiers

As the credit noose tightens, it is not surprising that commentators are seeking examples of countries who found their way out of unrepayable debts - and lived to tell the tale. In the case of Argentina, whose debts at the time of its default in 2001 were $81bn. - a record for the time although dwarfed by current debts - life after debt has proved to be a very positive experience.

The story is told in a couple of podcasts made by Peter Day for his World of Business series on Radio 4. A paper I wrote about Argentina's barter networks introduces this story. Caught in the orbit of the US dollar, Argentina was unable to allow its currency to adjust to the needs of its own economy, much as the smaller economies of the Eurozone are today. This culminated in a financial collapse in 2001, with the loss of huge amounts of savings by the members of Argentina's middle class.

What becomes clear from the podcast is that clever young economists within the Argentinian finance depart and/or central bank were alive to the causes of their crisis and took political control. As a recent report (pp. 58-62) indicates, refusing to pay socially impossible debts was a positive decision both in Argentina and in Russia. Default was the first step, followed by a decision not to become involved in debt again. Similar decisions by other Latin American countries actually threatened the future of the IMF - since without debtors a bank is defunct - until the credit crunch in Europe gave it a new lease of life.

With no possibility of receiving credit Argentina had to live from its own resources, which turned out to be a blessing rather than a handicap. With a massive and fertile land mass, and a popuation of only 40 million well-educated people, Argentina had nothing to fear in its debt-free future. As food and fodder prices have boomed, so has Argentina, with its government benefiting from a 35% export tax on soya production.

Another interesting lesson is the rapid growth in the 'informal' sector, which is a typical feature of many poor economies but less typical of a highly sophisticated economy like Argentina. This may also be a feature of the future of European economies. On the positive side it can be interpreted as self-provisioning and self-reliance, but its shadow side is exploitation and precarity.

The sting in the tale of the story of Argentina is that its economic success has enabled it to seek foreign finance. The credit vultures are circling and seeking their share of the natural wealth of the country. How far will Argentina's politicians remember their lesson and keep control of their national wealth?
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