More Links to Germany

As the parallels with the 1930s grow stronger, another commentator has written an article drawing attention to the way Germany was treated in the 1950s and the way the Eurozone, at Germany's behest, is treating the debtor nations of Europe's periphery. As Eric Toussaint notes, the 1953 London Agreement acknowledged that Germany was simply unable to pay its debts, and that failure to recognise this could cause social and political tensions within and between countries. With the second great European war still a vivid and personal memory for many this argument was heeded. Amongst our generation of politicians, sadly, the focus on punitive measures and judgemental attitudes is outweighing the good sense that says when countries can't bear, forcing them to do so will only break them and their populations.
. Tweet

What the Fukushima is Going on?

Well how could we possibly know? The major consequence of the Fukushima disaster in this household is that we now have a dish aerial so that we are no longer reliant on the BBC's coverage which, in this case, I can only designate as propaganda. The truth is beginning to emerge from Tepco, who are now admitting that three of the Fukushima plant's reactors melted down within days of the tusnami. Those presumably were the days during which the BBC was engaging a range of pro-nuclear stooges to reassure us that there was no problem.

While the internet appears to be ephemeral it can in reality provide a trace, and we can use this trace to assess exactly what we were being told by the BBC. On 14 March BBC churnalists were reporting the view of 'international nuclear watchdogs' (presumably the IAEA) that there was no sign of a meltdown, balanced by the comment of an unnamed minister that the 'melting of rods' was 'highly likely'. On 27 March the BBC reported that workers were 'trying to cool the reactor core to avoid a meltdown' at a time when we now know that three meltdowns had already occurred. Perhaps strangest of all was the constant repetition of the bizarre phrase 'partial meltdown', as though nuclear fuel could somehow resemble a chocolate fondant pudding.

We were, throughout the early days of the disaster, when people were still listening to the stories, being reassured that this was an old plant whose design is no longer used. This is, as made clear in a film made for the BBC by Adam Curtis back in 1992, when it still had a degree of independence, to entirely miss the point. The real question is why these plants were still running if they were not safe: and that is a question about politics not science.

The BBC's inability to provide clear information about the nuclear threat is no doubt a consequence of the increasing political pressure it has been under in recent years, making the inference that we no longer have an independent national broadcasting channel a sad but inevitable one. No wonder, then, that there has not been a reaction against nuclear power in Britain, compared to Germany, where the tide of revulsion from a better informed public has led to the closure of the entire nuclear industry by 2022 and the election of green governments in a number of the country's regions. Tweet

Merkel Confronts the Market Wolves

Throughout the years of financial crisis it has been notable that financial and business interests have been writing the story. Media analysts have been colluding: those who understand what is going on are in the pockets of the business lobbyists; those who do not are scared to reveal their ignorance. The result is that we are being sold a lie.

The official version of what is happening in the finance markets goes like this. Countries are in debt so they look like a bad risk. The debt of risky countries is harder to sell and so the price falls and traders need to be offered a better rate of interest to accept it. Traders will not buy it at all unless they are convinced about the soundness of the national economy selling it, so that markets demand that countries introduce austerity measures. If they are not satistifed the austerity must be made more austere.

The truth is different. As they pick on each country in turn the bond traders create a self-fulfilling prophecy. They (through the credit-rating agencies) downgrade the surety of the country's debt. Its price falls and the return they gain from holding it rises. Thus their creation of this story is a simple means of increasing their profits. They feel they can still squeeze more out of Irish debt, hence the story that the 'markets don't believe' the Irish government is secure. Once they have destroyed Ireland they will move on to Portugal, Spain and even Belgium, according to today's story. Governments in those countries tremble and beat up on their own people.

Understanding the behaviour of market traders is not difficult; devising policy to counteract it is. The process of globalisation meant the signing away of political power over economics, so even when the free operation of finance markets is clearly disastrous for the world's people politicians feel powerless. If one country acted alone they would face the massive movement of speculative money and, as Black Wednesday proved, no country or currency can withstand that.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been clearest about the need for political action, perhaps because she represents the strongest economy, perhaps because of the folk memory of the 1930s and the destructive consequences unrestrained finance wreaked then, perhaps because she grew up in a debt-averse Protestant home. First she called for political controls over credit-rating and now she is suggesting that the bond-holders should contribute to paying for the costs of the crises they are causing, shifting the balance of their incentives away from destroying domestic economies. These represent the first feeble attempts to reassert political authority over the globalised economy. "Have politicians got the courage to make those who earn money share in the risk as well? Or is dealing in government debt the only business in the world economy that involves no risk?" she asked on Wednesday.

Gordon Brown is short of a job these days. Perhaps the son and daughter of the church could combine their efforts in devising a plan for European governments to take charge. If he really wants to save the world, now could be just the right time.
. Tweet

Time to Create the Renten-Euro?

Why do currencies fail? If you did not know any better you would assume it was because the people in the countries supporting them became lazy and demanded free plastic surgery at a moment's notice while spending all their days reclining in the sun enjoying a view over the Agean. Or some other scenario we can enviously imagine while stuck at our computers in the summer rain - us and the Germans we share our northern Atlantic climate with.

It was not so long ago that we were looking at this same scenario from the other end of the telescope. The narrow focus on the Second World War in UK history teaching means that many of us have a strong mental image of the collapse of a European currency, with the useful visual mnemonic of hungry shoppers trundling a wheelbarrow full of notes to the local bakery. The whispered suggestion that the Euro may have lost credibility to the extent that it be replaced by a new currency (as the Mark was replaced by the Rentenmark in 1923) makes clear the parallel with that period of German's history.

The most unhelpful talk of punishment should bring this image to mind, because nobody suggests that the German hyper-inflation between the wars was the result of the burghers setting up their deck-chairs along the Rhine in the hope of catching a bit of sun. We all learned, and we should remember now, that the German economy was destroyed by the demand for an unrealistic level of reparations. Punishing Germany for its economic woes, as many are suggesting we should punich Greece now, destroyed its currency and allowed space for fascism to flourish.

The CIA have helpfully compiled a list of the countries of the world ranked according to the size of their debts as a proportion of the GDP. I have no idea how reliable this data is, but surely the more important point is that so many countries have these debts. This suggests that there is something structurally wrong with the system of national and global financing, rather than the demand of people the world over for a decent life, or their willingness to work a reasonable amount of hours to achieve that.

The system of creating money as debt should be our target: for creating instability, and for permitting the extraction of the value of work by those who do none. If we are seeking targets in deck-chairs, those who live from rental earnings of their financial investments would be a good place to start. Tweet